Super Bowl LX has the type of setup that usually produces tight, efficient markets. You have two high seeds, a rematch on the biggest stage, and two teams that reached February by winning in very different ways. Seattle went through the NFC by overwhelming San Francisco and then surviving a high-scoring NFC title game. New England advanced by winning lower-scoring playoff games and closing the AFC with defense and situational execution.

Where the Novig market gets interesting is that it prices Seattle as the better team, but it does not price the game as clean or comfortable. The shape of the numbers points toward a Super Bowl where execution, pressure, and red-zone outcomes matter more than a single narrative.

Injury and Matchup Context Shaping the Market

As of the first Super Bowl week injury reporting window, both teams have real names on the report, but the theme is more “availability and limitations” than catastrophic absences.

Patriots notable injury notes: Drake Maye was listed as limited with a right shoulder issue, and WR Mack Hollins was limited (abdomen). New England also had LB Harold Landry III (knee) and LB Robert Spillane (ankle) listed as non-participants, plus OT Thayer Munford Jr. (knee/illness) as a non-participant.

Seahawks notable injury notes: Seattle listed QB Sam Darnold limited (oblique), LT Charles Cross limited (foot), S Julian Love limited (shoulder), LB Drake Thomas limited (shoulder), and TE Eric Saubert limited (hamstring). Two players were listed as non-participants: T Amari Kight (knee) and LB Ernest Jones IV (chest).

From a pure “how does this affect the game” standpoint, the most market-relevant angles are:

• Maye’s mobility vs Seattle’s defense: NFL Pro notes Maye’s scrambling has been a major postseason weapon, and flags that Seattle has been elite overall against the run but more vulnerable specifically to quarterback scrambles. That’s one of the cleaner ways New England can extend drives even if the pass game is stressed.
• Seattle’s offense vs Patriots pressure: NFL Pro also highlights that New England grades well when generating pressure and holds a matchup edge there, which matters if Seattle’s protection is impacted by tackle health (Cross limited, Jones limited, and Kight out).
• Explosives on both sides, but two defenses built to limit them: NFL Pro frames this as efficient explosive offenses meeting shutdown-style defenses, which often produces games that stay close until a few high-leverage plays break it.

That context helps explain why the Novig market can favor Seattle while still pricing New England as very capable of pulling off a win. Below is a more detailed breakdown of what the Novig traders are saying about the game. 

Novig Odds Overview 

Odds are provided from Novig and updated as of Wednesday, Jan. 28th, 2026 at 7:34 p.m. ET.

Seahawks vs Patriots Market Overview

Moneyline: Seattle Favored, New England Still Strong

The moneyline provides the cleanest read on outright expectations.

Seattle at -214 implies that Novig traders expect the Seahawks to win more often than not. However, the price stops well short of suggesting dominance. Traders are not paying a steep premium to back Seattle, which indicates some hesitation around treating the Seahawks as a low-risk favorite.

New England at +212 reinforces that point. This is not a number typically associated with a team the market views as overmatched. Instead, it reflects an underdog that still draws interest, particularly if the game remains close late. 

Taken together, the moneyline suggests a game where Seattle has the edge, but where New England is seen as capable of capitalizing on mistakes, turnovers, or late-game situations.

Spread: Expectation of a One-Score Game

The spread market adds important context.

Seattle is favored by 4.5 points, but the pricing is relatively balanced. Backing the Seahawks costs -104, while taking the Patriots comes with +100. That pricing indicates demand on both sides and limited conviction that the game will stretch beyond one score.

The +4.5 at even money is particularly telling. It suggests that many traders see value in New England keeping the game close, even if they do not expect the Patriots to control it. 

This spread does not reflect fear of Seattle’s offense or defense. Instead, it reflects uncertainty around separation and a belief that New England’s style of play can keep the game within reach. 

Total: Lean Toward Control Over Pace

The total market provides insight into expected game flow.

At 45.5, the number itself points toward a moderately paced game. The pricing slightly favors the under (-102) over the over (+101), which suggests traders are marginally more comfortable with a lower-scoring outcome than a fast, high-variance one.

This aligns with how many Super Bowls are played. Teams will be conservative with early possessions, emphasize field position, and score in stretches rather than constant exchanges.

The total does not indicate expectations of a defensive struggle, but it does suggest that traders are not anticipating sustained offensive fireworks. 

What the Numbers Say as a Whole

When viewed together, the Novig market paints a consistent picture:

• Seattle is the stronger team, but New England is not far behind
• The game is expected to stay competitive into the second half
• Outcomes are likely to hinge on red-zone efficiency and late-game decisions rather than pace alone.

This is a market pricing balance and uncertainty rather than extremes.

Quick Summary

Novig’s Super Bowl odds do not point to a dramatic prediction or a clear consensus blowout. Instead, they reflect a matchup where the favorite holds an edge, but the underdog remains viable across the whole game.

For traders, that means the market is less about calling a runaway winner and more about understanding where confidence fades and risk begins. In the Super Bowl, that distinction often matters more than any single pick.