March Madness attracts more betting action than almost any other event on the American sports calendar. It also attracts more platforms competing for that action than ever before. Traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings have been joined by a new category of prediction exchanges, with Kalshi and Novig among the most prominent options available to sports traders in 2026.

The question is no longer just sportsbook versus exchange. The real question is which exchange offers the best value and how the different platforms stack up across real markets on real games.

This article compares live odds from Kalshi, DraftKings, and Novig across five 2026 East Region first-round matchups. It also covers how each platform is structured, where each model has an edge, and why the differences matter more than most traders realize.

Three Platforms, Three Different Models

Understanding the pricing differences starts with understanding how each platform works.

DraftKings

DraftKings is a traditional sportsbook. You are wagering against the operator, which sets lines using oddsmakers and builds a margin into every market. That margin, known as the vig or juice, is typically around 4.5% on spread bets and higher on moneylines. The sportsbook earns on both sides of every market and accounts that show consistent winning patterns are often limited or restricted.

Kalshi

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated prediction exchange that operates in a wide array of markets both in and out of sports. Rather than betting against an operator, users trade contracts with other participants. Prices emerge from supply and demand rather than from an oddsmaker. Kalshi operates as a federally regulated futures exchange, which gives it a distinct legal structure from both traditional sportsbooks and newer prediction market platforms.

Novig

Novig is a commission-free, peer-to-peer sports prediction exchange. Like Kalshi, prices are set by the market rather than by an operator. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, there is no built-in house margin on any market. Novig is positioned specifically around sports, offering spreads, totals, and moneylines in a format that mirrors traditional sports betting while removing the house margin. Winning accounts are not limited.

The key distinction between Kalshi and Novig in practice comes down to liquidity, sports-specific depth, and pricing on individual markets. Both are exchanges and are better than a sportsbook at limiting built-in costs to the trader, but they do not always price markets the same way, and the differences are visible in the data below.

Liquidity and What It Means for Pricing

One of the most important variables in any exchange-based market is liquidity. Liquidity is the volume of active traders on both sides of a market at any given time. Higher liquidity generally produces tighter and more accurate pricing. Lower liquidity can result in wider spreads between the buy and sell price, or markets that move more dramatically on individual orders. 

Novig’s sports-specific focus means it concentrates liquidity around the types of markets that sports traders care about most, which are spreads, totals, and moneylines on major games. With over 100,000 active traders and $4 billion in annualized platform volume, Novig has built liquidity in sports markets that more general-purpose prediction platforms have not always matched. 

Kalshi’s broader market scope, which covers politics, economics, and other events in addition to sports, means its sports liquidity is distributed across a wider range of markets. The pricing data below reflects those differences in certain markets, particularly on totals and spreads where Novig tends to post tighter lines.

The Vig Across the March Madness Tournament

Before getting into the matchup data, it is worth quantifying what platform fees cost across a full Tournament slate.

At a traditional sportsbook running -110 on both sides of a spread, the implied break-even rate is 52.4%. A bettor needs to be right more than half the time just to avoid losing money. On 40 trades at $100 each, that embedded fee represents roughly $180 in expected costs before a single game is played.

On a no-vig exchange, that figure is zero. Every dollar in play is working on the outcome rather than subsidizing an operator margin. For traders who are active across the full Tournament, the difference between a sportsbook and an exchange is not a minor pricing preference. It is a structural cost that compounds across every trade placed. 

Real Odds Compared: Kalshi vs. DraftKings vs. Novig

Below are live spreads, totals, and moneylines pulled from all three platforms across five 2026 East Region first-round matchups. You can browse the full slate of available markets on Novig's events page.

1. Duke (1) vs. Siena (16)

Duke finished the regular season 32-2 with the largest adjusted efficiency margin in the country at 38.9 points, led by Cameron Boozer, the frontrunner for National Player of the Year. Siena is making its first Tournament appearance since 2010 after winning the MAAC and ranks outside the top 300 nationally in offensive efficiency. The Blue Devils are the prohibitive favorite, with most analysts projecting a margin of 25 or more points. 

Since the outcome is so certain, the spread and total are where most of the meaningful trading interest sits. This matchup is a good example of how different platforms handle extreme pricing on a near-certain outcome, and where the no-vig exchange model produces the most visible pricing advantage.

Key takeaway: Novig offers the best price on the Siena spread and the total over, with both shifting from juice-paying to profit-paying positions. Kalshi wins the under and the Duke spread. DraftKings offers the highest Siena moneyline payout.

‍What a $100 bet looks like on the Siena spread:

• Kalshi: Siena +28.5 at -105: $100 bet returns $195.24 total
• DraftKings: Siena +29.5 at -110: $100 bet returns $190.91 total
• Novig: Siena +29.5 at +100: $100 bet returns $200 total

Novig returns $4.76 more than Kalshi and $9.09 more than DraftKings on the same side of the spread.

2. TCU (9) vs. Ohio State (8)

Ohio State (21-12) returns to the Tournament for the first time since 2022, led by senior guard Bruce Thornton, the program’s all-time leading scorer at 20.2 points per game. TCU (22-11) earned its bid by winning eight of its last nine regular-season games and finished 11-7 in the Big 12, with wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech. Sophomore forward David Punch averages 14-plus points and nearly seven rebounds for the Horned Frogs. Expert opinion is split on this matchup.

This game is priced as a true toss-up, with a 2.5-point spread and a low projected total reflecting two defense-oriented teams. In a close game, even small pricing differences carry real weight. The spread is where the exchange pricing advantage is clearest here.

Key takeaway: Novig wins the TCU spread. Kalshi wins the TCU moneyline and both sides of the total. DraftKings offers the best Ohio State moneyline.

‍What a $100 bet looks like on the TCU spread:

• Kalshi: TCU +2.5 at -105: $100 bet returns $195.24 total
• DraftKings: TCU +2.5 at -110 bet returns $190.91 total
• Novig: TCU +2.5 at -102: $100 bet returns $198.04 total

Novig returns $2.80 more than Kalshi and $7.13 more than DraftKings.

3. Louisville (6) vs. South Florida (11)

Louisville (23-10) has been resurgent under Pat Kelsey, with Ryan Conwell averaging 18.7 points per game. The central variable is freshman Mikel Brown Jr., who has been sidelined by a back injury and whose availability significantly changes Louisville’s ceiling. South Florida (25-8) earned its first Tournament bid since 2012 by winning the AAC regular season and Tournament title. The Bulls have five players averaging double figures and play at a fast pace with high three-point volume. Both teams ranked in the top 20 nationally in scoring, driving one of the highest totals in the first round. 

The three platforms show their most dramatic spread-line disagreement in this matchup. Kalshi prices Louisville at -3.5 while DraftKings and Novig both open at -5.5, reflecting different market reads on the game. Novig wins the spread, both sides of the total, and the Louisville moneyline simultaneously, making this the matchup where the no-vig model shows up most comprehensively.

Key takeaway: Novig wins the Louisville spread, both sides of the total, and the Louisville moneyline. Kalshi wins the South Florida spread at a significantly better number with a positive price. The two-point line discrepancy between Kalshi and other platforms is the largest in this matchup.

What a $100 bet looks like on the Louisville spread:

• Kalshi: Louisville -3.5 at -139: $100 bet returns $171.94 total
• DraftKings: Louisville -5.5 at -108: $100 bet returns $192.59 total
• Novig: Louisville -5.5 at +107: $100 bet returns $207 total

Novig returns $35.06 more than Kalshi and $14.41 more than DraftKings on the Louisville spread.

4. Michigan State (3) vs. North Dakota State (14)

Michigan State (25-7) is one of the most consistent Tournament programs in the country under Tom Izzo, who carries a 41-17 record in first-round games. The Spartans enter with the No. 13 defense and No. 24 offense nationally, and Jeremy Fears Jr. has scored 20-plus points in each of his last four games. North Dakota State (27-7) won the Summit League but ranks outside the top 100 in offensive efficiency. Most analysts treat this as a comfortable Michigan State win and focus on the Spartans’ second-weekend potential.

The large spread makes the spread pricing and total the markets with the most meaningful trading interest. Novig posts a notably different price on the Michigan State spread, shifting it to a positive-money position, and wins the total over as well. 

Key takeaway: Novig wins the Michigan State spread and the total over. Kalshi wins both sides of the moneyline and the total under. The Michigan State moneyline is meaningfully better on Kalshi at -1567 versus -4067 on Novig. 

What a $100 bet looks like on the Michigan State spread:

• Kalshi: Michigan St -16.5 at -109: $100 bet returns $191.74 total
• DraftKings: Michigan St -16.5 at -110: $100 bet returns $190.91 total
• Novig: Michigan St -16.5 at +101: $100 bet returns $201 total

Novig returns $9.26 more than Kalshi and $10.09 more than DraftKings. 

5. UCLA (7) vs. UCF (10)

By the number, this is the closest game in the East Region. UCLA (23-11) finished with a top-30 KenPom rating and wins over Illinois, Purdue, and Michigan State under Mick Cronin. The primary concern heading into the Tournament is health, as point guard Donovan Dent exited the Purdue semifinal with a calf injury and leading scorer Tyler Bilodeau sat out with a knee issue. If both players are at full strength, most analysts favor UCLA. UCF (21-11) returns to the Tournament under Johnny Dawkins for the first time since 2019, with a capable offense and a defense outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency. 

Health uncertainty makes both spread and moneyline meaningful markets here. Kalshi and Novig are posting the same spread number at +6.5, a half-point better than DraftKings at +5.5, but Novig prices it at better juice. The UCF moneyline is where Novig’s advantage is clearest. 

Key takeaway: Novig wins both sides of the spread and the UCF moneyline. Kalshi wins the total over by a significant margin at +108 versus negative pricing on the other two platforms. The UCLA moneyline is tied between Kalshi and DraftKings.

What a $100 bet looks like on the UCF moneyline:

• Kalshi: UCF +203: $100 bet returns $303 total
• DraftKings: UCF +200: $100 bet returns $300 total
• Novig: UCF +213: $100 bet returns $313 total

Novig returns $10 more than Kalshi and $13 more than DraftKings if the upset hits.

Odds and Pricing Overview

Across these five matchups, Novig consistently returns more on the featured trade in each game. On spreads, the exchange model produces tighter pricing across nearly every game. On the moneyline in each matchup where Novig is the stronger platform, the dollar difference ranges from $2.80 on a tight coin-flip spread to $35 on the Louisville spread.

The pattern across these matchups reflects the underlying model. Novig concentrates its liquidity entirely on sports, which produces deeper, more competitive pricing on the markets that account for the majority of March Madness trading volume. That depth is what drives the consistent pricing advantage in the matchups above. 

Why Novig Is the Best Option for March Madness Traders

The odds across these five matchups point to a clear conclusion, but it helps to spell out why the results look the way they do.

General-purpose prediction exchanges like Kalshi cover a broad range of markets like elections, economic indicators, cultural events, and sports. That breadth is valuable for certain traders, but it also means liquidity is spread across a wide range of markets simultaneously. In sports specifically, thinner liquidity can produce wider pricing gaps, less competitive lines on spreads and totals, and markets that move more on individual orders. 

Novig is built exclusively for sports. Every trader on the platform is there to trade on games. That concentration produces deeper, more competitive markets on the exact bet types that matter most in March Madness, spreads, totals, and moneylines. It is why Novig consistently wins the spread and total pricing across this dataset even when Kalshi wins certain moneylines. The sports-specific liquidity is doing that work.

At the same time, Novig retains all the structural advantages that make a prediction exchange better than a traditional sportsbook for any serious trader. There is no house taking a cut on every market and no oddsmaker setting prices to protect operator revenue. A profitable trader on Novig is providing liquidity to the market, not threatening it.

For March Madness traders who want the efficiency and fairness of a prediction exchange, built specifically around sports, with enough depth to produce tight pricing across 67 games, Novig is the platform that delivers both. The transparency of an exchange model, the liquidity of a sports-focused market, and none of the structural costs that make traditional sportsbooks a losing proposition over time. 

Compare Live March Madness Odds on Novig

‍Browse spreads, totals, and moneylines across the full 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket.

Updated in real time as games tip off.→ See all tournament events on Novig