The NFL playoffs shift into high gear with the Divisional Round, featuring four compelling matchups. With teams separated by just a few points in many cases, small differences in pricing across platforms can make a big impact. 

Unlike traditional sportsbooks such as FanDuel, which build margin into every line, Novig uses a peer-to-peer trading model where prices are driven by supply and demand. That means tighter pricing and potentially better value for the same pick. 

Below we break down the storyline you need to know for each matchup. We also include real odds examples comparing Novig to FanDuel across spreads, totals, and moneylines to see which platform has the best pricing. 

NFL Lines and Line Shopping 2025-2026 Divisional Round

Odds are provided from FanDuel Sportsbook and Novig Prediction Market and updated as of Wednesday, Jan. 14th at 4:53 p.m. ET.

Bills vs. Broncos

Saturday’s early Divisional Round game features the Buffalo Bills against the Denver Broncos. Buffalo is coming off a thrilling Wild Card victory and is once again being tested on the road. Denver earned a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the AFC and will host this contest.

This is a rematch of last year’s playoff meeting, when the Bills won decisively, and it marks Denver’s first home playoff game in years. Analysts note Denver’s defense is strong, but there are serious questions about whether they can contain Buffalo’s balanced attack. 

FanDuel vs Novig Pricing – Bills vs Broncos

Key takeaway:
Across spreads, totals, and moneylines, Novig consistently offers either a better number, a better payout, or both compared to FanDuel. 

What a $100 bet looks like:

To see how this plays out in practice, let's compare a $100 moneyline bet on Buffalo:

• FanDuel: BUF +100 – $100 returns $200 total
• Novig: BUF +107 – $100 returns $207 total

That’s $7 more on Novig for the same exact view.

49ers vs Seahawks

This Divisional Round matchup renews a familiar NFC West rivalry, with both teams knowing each other well. Seattle enters as the favorite after earning home-field advantage and is built around a strong defensive unit and an offense that has excelled in efficiency rather than pace.

San Francisco, however, has already proven capable of competing in this matchup. Their physical style and ability to shorten games make them a dangerous underdog, especially in a playoff environment where possessions are limited and mistakes are magnified.

Since this is a rivalry game with a clear favorite but a capable underdog, sportsbooks tend to shade pricing conservatively. That often means suppressing underdog payouts and protecting exposure on the favorite. Below is an example of where exchange-style pricing can diverge.

FanDuel vs Novig Pricing – 49ers vs Seahawks

Key takeaway:

Novig provides both a better spread (+7.5 instead of +7) and meaningfully higher underdog payouts on the moneyline.

What a $100 bet looks like:

Consider a $100 moneyline bet on San Francisco:

• FanDuel: SF +285 – $100 returns $385 total
• Novig: SF +298 – $100 returns $398 total

That’s $13 more in potential payout on Novig.

Texans vs Patriots

Houston travels to New England in a matchup shaped by coaching, discipline, and defensive execution. The Patriots enter with playoff experience and a game plan built around controlling tempo, while the Texans rely on efficiency and timely scoring rather than sustained drives.

This game is priced closely across platforms, with spreads hovering around a field goal and totals reflecting a slightly slower-paced contest. Since neither team is expected to pull away significantly, even half-point differences and small moneyline gaps become more important.

Games like this are a good example of where sportsbooks may adjust numbers conservatively, while exchange pricing reflects more natural market sentiment.

FanDuel vs Novig Pricing – Texans vs Patriots

Key takeaway:

Novig improves pricing across all three core markets. This includes a key half-point advantage on the spread.

What a $100 bet looks like:

Compare a $100 moneyline bet on Houston:

• FanDuel: HOU +146 – $100 returns $246 total
• Novig: HOU +158 – $100 returns $258 total

That’s $12 more in upside on Novig.

Rams vs Bears

The Rams enter this Divisional Round matchup as road favorites against a Bears team that has been competitive at home. Los Angeles brings offensive explosiveness and veteran quarterback play, while Chicago has leaned on defense and situational execution to stay in games.

Since the Rams are favored but playing on the road, pricing across markets reflects a balance between perceived talent advantage and home-field risk. In these situations, sportsbooks often embed margin on both sides of the market rather than heavily shading one outcome.

That makes this matchup a strong example of how pricing efficiency should drive betting decisions. 

FanDuel vs Novig Pricing – Rams vs Bears

Key takeaway:

Novig offers better pricing on both sides of the moneyline and cleaner prices on spreads and totals.

‍What a $100 bet looks like:

Look at a $100 moneyline bet on the Rams:

• FanDuel: LA -210 – $100 returns $147.62 total
• Novig: LA -184 – $100 returns $154.35 total

That’s nearly $7 more on Novig for backing the favorite.

Why These Differences Exist

FanDuel operates as a traditional sportsbook. It sets lines internally, manages exposure, and embeds margin into every market.

Novig functions as a marketplace:

• Users compete directly on price
• There is no built-in house edge
• Liquidity tightens markets naturally
• Pricing improves as participation increases

These structural differences are most visible during the playoffs, when volume is high and numbers are sharp. 

Quick Summary

In the Divisional Round, games are often decided by a handful of plays. When margins are thin, the biggest edge isn’t prediction, but instead is price.

Across all four Divisional Round matchups, Novig consistently delivers more efficient pricing than FanDuel on spreads, totals, and moneylines. 

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