The 2026 NFL Draft kicks off on April 23 in Pittsburgh, and for the first time in years, the top of the board is somewhat settled before the lights come on. Here is what to know about the storylines that matter before Roger Goodell takes the stage.
The Pick That Was Already Made: Fernando Mendoza to the Raiders
There is no suspense at No. 1. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is going to Las Vegas, and the market has known it for months.
Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana before the 2025 season and delivered one of the most decorated campaigns in college football history. He led the Hoosiers to a perfect 16-0 record and a national championship, threw 41 touchdowns against just six interceptions, completed 72% of his passes, and took home the Heisman Trophy. His adjusted completion percentage ranked second in the country. His 27 red zone touchdowns without a single interception were the most in the FBS. By every available measure, he was the best player in college football and the clear QB1 in this class.
At 6-foot-5 with clean mechanics, elite pocket patience, and the kind of pre-snap processing that NFL teams pay franchise money to find, Mendoza checks the structural boxes scouts care about most. The Raiders, under new head coach Klint Kubiak, have found their guy. This pick has been decided for a long time.
The honest questions about Mendoza are real but no disqualifying. He played out of the shotgun on 97% of his snaps, so operating under center will be a genuine adjustment at the NFL level. His completion percentage dropped significantly when flushed off his launch point or facing true pressure. Every defensive coordinator in the AFC West is already building a game plan around those tendencies.
With that said, the Raiders have Kirk Cousins as a bridge option, which means they can afford to bring Mendoza along at the right pace. The foundation is sound and the only question at No. 1 is how quickly he becomes what everyone expects him to be.
The Pick That Is Actually Up for Grabs: Jets at No. 2
This is where the 2026 draft really begins.
For months, Ohio State’s Arvell Reese was the consensus pick for the Jets at No. 2. That consensus has cracked. In the final two weeks leading into draft night, Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey has emerged as a real competitor for the spot, driven by reports that the Jets’ front office has been moving away from Reese internally.
These are two very different players, and which one the Jets choose will tell you everything about the defensive vision of first-year head coach Aaron Glenn.
Bailey is a natural pass rusher. He led all of FBS with 14.5 sacks last season and has been refining his craft as an edge specialist throughout his entire college career. The Jets finished 31st in the league in pressure rate last year. If Glenn wants an immediate answer to that problem, Bailey is the pick.
Reese is the higher-ceiling talent. Multiple analysts have compared him to Micah Parsons, and that comparison is not unreasonable. He is a physical freak who can impact games from multiple alignments and projects as a defensive centerpiece for a decade. The case against him at No. 2 is that pure pass rushing is not his most natural skill, everything he does as a pass rusher looks developed rather than instinctive.
Whichever player does not go second almost certainly goes third to the Arizona Cardinals, who need pass rushers to compete in the NFC West. The Reese-Bailey debate is the most interesting personnel argument in the first round, and it will not be resolved until the Jets hand in their card.
The Positional Value Debate: Tennessee at No. 4
The Tennessee Titans hold the fourth pick, and the player most mock drafters are sending them is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. There have been discussions around whether a running back is worth a top-five selection.
Love is the best running back in this class and is not particularly close. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry for the Fighting Irish, added nearly 300 yards receiving, and never has to leave the field in passing situations. He is a three-down back in a league that has started paying for those players again.
The Titans’ situation makes the fit compelling. Cam Ward is entering his second year as their franchise quarterback, and the fastest way to take pressure off a second-year passer is to hand the ball to someone who can move the chains independently. Love would do exactly that.
The counterargument is that pass rushers and offensive linemen win championships, and the Titans could address those positions with this pick and find equivalent production from a running back later. Tennessee’s front office will have heard both arguments dozens of times by April 23. The direction they go will signal how committed they are to competing immediately versus building long-term.
The Wildcard: New York Giants at No. 5
New head coach John Harbaugh makes his first draft decision with the Giants, and it is the most unpredictable pick in the top ten.
The Giants have enough needs across their roster that virtually any direction is defensible. Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles offers the kind of two-way versatility Harbaugh has historically valued in his defenses. Ohio State safety Caleb Down is one of the most complete prospects in the class. Love is also a possibility if he falls.
What makes this pick interesting is the trade dimension. The Giants have so many holes to fill that packaging this pick for additional capital is a real option. Multiple teams have been connected to the idea of moving up into this range, with the Cowboys among the most frequently mentioned. If Dallas calls with the right offer, Harbaugh might decide that more bullets is better than one great player.
[H2] Where the Trades Are Coming
Every year, the draft night trade market surprises even the people who track it most closely. This year, the pressure points are clear.
The Giants at No. 5 are the most logical trade-down candidate in the first round. Their board is wide open and their needs are broad enough that extra picks serve them better than committing to any single player at this spot.
The Kansas City Chiefs at No. 9 are sitting on their first top-ten pick since 2017. Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, the offensive line was a disaster in 2025, and the Chiefs have real decisions to make about how to use that capital. Trading down and accumulating Day 2 picks is a realistic path. Staying put and taking the best available offensive lineman is equally defensible.
The Cowboys have been named in trade-up scenarios throughout the pre-draft process and have the capital to be aggressive. Dallas is a team that believes it is close enough to compete that accelerating the timeline makes sense.
The Jets, sitting at No. 2, have also been discussed as a potential trade-down partner if a quarterback-needy team wants to move up. That scenario is less likely given the Jets' own defensive needs, but draft night creates strange markets.
The Bottom Line
The pre-draft market has told us clearly that Mendoza is the most certain No. 1 pick, the Jets’ choice between Bailey and Reese is the most contested decision in the top five, and the middle of the first round is where trades will reshape what we thought we knew about the board.
When the NFL Draft markets go live on Novig, you will be able to trade your read on every one of these picks at true odds. With Novig, you avoid house margin and there are no limits on winning positions. That is what makes the signal worth acting on. Keep an eye on Novig as draft night approaches.
